Reply #11: Not necessarily [View All]

[Vladimir]

the real problem is that a lot of the opposition leadership is composed of the warlords who tore the country up during the 80s, and Hizb Allah is of course not exactly a boy band itself. But I doubt seriously that the Lebanese have much of a stomach for yet another civil war, and the opposition is not that well armed when compared to Hizb Allah. But yes, a civil war is one possible outcome, and certainly not that unlikely. What I find a lot more likely is that the illusion of an imminent civil war will be created, and then used to justify a foreign intervention of the non-Syrian kind into Lebanon. To this end notice how Hizb Allah have been invited to disarm and 'join the political process' - something they are bloody unlikely to acquiesce to (at least the first part).