Reply #47: I'd disagree. [View All]

[ProgressiveConn]

I think while it is possible that we will see 'terrorist' style attacks it will not lead to open civil war.

The current series of protests have all been draped in nationalism. Which is probably a good thing in this case. Hezbollah didn't call for its supporters to demonstrate "as usual." They called for a "Unity" demonstration. I'm told that a good portion of the demonstrators were a part of all three big demonstrations. That just because the Hezbollah called demonstration was larger than the original demonstration does not mean that the Lebanese wanted Syrian troops to stay.

A friend read me portions of an email from her Lebanese friend now back in Beirut. She apparently attended the 'anti-Syrian' demonstration and then the 'pro-Syrian' demonstration as well. She said she is worried about sectarian militias and that it is better to try and include Hezbollah as a part of democratic Lebanon and to further encourage the Shi'ite community and their allies to express themselves as Lebanese first and Shi'ites/anti-zionists second. That Lebanon is best served by a Unity government including those who approve of Syria's domination of Lebanon. That it should be a slow transition and that those who support Syria's involvement should be encouraged to participate.

The problem that I see with the Lebanese Opposition is that they seem to be unwilling to remove parts of the Lebanese government that basically institutionalizes the sectarian divide. With secular governmental positions being limited to specific religious groups. How can you mandate that the President has to be a Christian? How can you mandate that the Prime Minister must be a Sunni? How can you mandate that their legislature is run by a Shi'ite? It is frigging ridiculous. I am not sure that sectarian hostilities can ever be eliminated with this type of structure.

It is important that all sides are demonstrating under the Lebanese red, white, & cedar and that there has been a visible decline in the use of the yellow banner with green rifle clenched in a fist. Maybe this signifies the start of a shift in hezbollah from a military organization to a strictly political one. It will be a long road as I can promise you Hezbollah will not disarm anytime in the near future even if they ended up in complete control of the Lebanese government.