Reply #63: Hysteria [View All]

[pandemic_1918]

If you look at the situation you will get hysterical. If you don't, you won't. WHO has already given details on why a pandemic is inevitable and why it could be as bad or worse than 1918. H5N1 has a case fatality rate 10X higher than 1918 pandemic flu. It has been broadening its host range and now infects several mammalian species. It can grow to high titers in asymptomatic ducks and has become endemic to Southeast Asia.

Vaccine development is just starting and its only on one strain (two isolates that are virtually identical). Antivirals are in VERY short supply and unproven in pandemic conditions. Most hospitals have little surge capacity and can be quickly overwhelmed, especially if health care workers start dying.

Vaccine can't even be made in quantity for H3N2 (and it still kills students via meningococcemia extremely quickly and efficiently).