Reply #14: Neither will probably even win a nomination [View All]

[liberalpragmatist]

It's not likely given how the RW Fundie base hates them.

If McCain's the nominee, then he'd probably be unbeatable.

Giuliani would be tough, but it could be done. He doesn't wear well. He's an asshole (and I've talked to SEVERAL Republicans who agree with me) and by that point it'll have been SEVEN years since 9-11.

In addition to all the ethical problems and whatnot, how is he going to run a viable conservative campaign? Sooner or later Bushco policies will catch up with us and will prove unsustainable. I guess Giuliani might slip by emphasizing his battles with the New York arts funding, his tough-on-crime platform, tax cuts, and hawkishness on foreign policy.

But if he were to run, the South and West could be VERY receptive to a new candidate, even if a state like New Jersey would wind up more competitive. NJ would probably be a tossup and we'd have to put some resources into New York (we'd still win it though).

I imagine if we ran John Edwards or Wesley Clark against Giuliani, we'd win. They'd cut into Southern and Midwestern support, could run populist campaigns and benefit from anti-NE sentiments.

Could result in an ironic partial inversion of the red-blue map. I can imagine Giuliani winning NJ, maybe Pennsylvania (given it's swing-state status and perhaps a higher popularity in the Philly suburbs) but losing Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Nevada, New Mexico, and maybe Colorado. North Carolina or Virginia might be close and conceivably go Dem. Tennessee and WV might go Dem or at least be closer. Louisiana? Given a choice between a pro-corporate pro-choice New Yorker and a populist Southern moderate, Louisiana could VERY CONCEIVABLY go Dem. Florida would probably still be close - Rudy might do better among Florida transplants in S. Florida but we might do better in Central and Western Florida.