Reply #128: The "elsewhere" [View All]

[Terry in Austin]

Good instincts, there, to be alert for that type of thing... Actually, though, it's the other way around: the elsewhere -- neocons, the "war on terra," etc. -- are what's being used to divert our attention from this issue. Americans are in a deep state of denial about it, and this administration of oilmen is doing everything they can to keep it that way.

The energy bulletin link starting this thread is a great piece to start getting some facts on the global oil problem. Highly recommended reading.

Basically, world oil production has been flat and is going to be flat (at best) for at least the rest of the decade. Beyond that, it still doesn't look good. There just isn't enough oil in the ground to keep up with world demand.

Meanwhile, that demand has been averaging an increase of 2.5% per year, and last year it was up 3.3%. So we basically have a permanent shortfall where the supply and demand curves never meet. That's the front edge of the Peak Oil problem, the economic one.

Eventually, demand and consumption will fall due to high prices and restricted availability, but then that's the nub of the situation -- the world as we know it is based on high consumption of cheap and abundant energy, which so far can only be supplied by oil. When consumption falls, that's another way of saying that the very foundation of our current way of life is diminishing.

"Structural adjustments will occur accordingly" is probably the most polite way to put it.