Sunni revolt could get far worse: report("The worst might be yet to come") [View All]

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http://about.upi.com/products/perspectives/UPI-20050829-035752-4480R

Sunni revolt could get far worse: report

WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (UPI) -- The Sunni insurgency in Iraq could metastasize and become far more widespread and dangerous than it already is, a leading Washington analyst has warned in a new study.

"The worst might be yet to come -- with all that implies for ongoing efforts to stand up Iraq's new security forces and future plans to reduce the U.S. military presence in Iraq," Michael Eisenstadt, director of security studies at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, warned in a new Policy Watch issued by the think tank.

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"In light of recent warnings by Sunni Arab politicians that dissatisfaction with the draft constitution could spur additional violence, the more important conclusion ... may be that only a small fraction of the Sunni Arab population that supports attacks on coalition forces or that has some kind of military or paramilitary training has been mobilized by the insurgency thus far," he wrote. "Insurgent efforts expand their recruiting efforts, succeed in broadening their appeal, or opt to fight a "popular war" against the Iraqi government (and coalition forces) by exploiting this untapped demographic potential, the worst may be yet to come."

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However, Eisenstadt in his study noted that according to figures from the United Nations Development Program's 2004 Iraq Living Conditions Survey, the Sunni Muslim population, while only 20 percent, or one-fifth of the total population of Iraq, still amounts to 5.4 million people of whom 1.35 million are men of military age, from age 15 to 49.