Reply #120: Hurricane RITA Update (6:50 PM, NHC, Third Strongest Storm on Record) [View All]

[JCMach1]

WTNT63 KNHC 212351
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT
MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY
DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/212351.shtml

also link to 11:00 advisory

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/220249.shtml

ALSO, from the Weather Channel

Hurricane Rita's rapid intensification cycle that began Tuesday afternoon continues. Top winds are up to 175 mph, now a category 5 hurricane. Rita's pressure has dramatically dropped to 897 millibars! Even as a large and extremely intense category 5 hurricane, further strengthening is possible as the atmosphere remains favorable for development over the next 24 hours.

Rita is forecast to continue on a westward track through the Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours. A gradual turn toward the northwest is anticipated Thursday night and Friday. If there is any good news at this point, it is the fact that it is very difficult for a hurricane to maintain category 5 status for an lengthy period of time. Near-perfect to perfect atmospheric conditions are necessary for a category 5 hurricane to exist and these "perfect" conditions are first - difficult to come by and second - do not remain in place for a long period of time. So although Rita is currently a category 5 hurricane, fluctuations in intensity is likely. That being said, it is almost a certainty that Rita will make landfall as a large, intense, major hurricane with impacts extending well away from the center. Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles away from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. Landfall is possible late Friday or early Saturday along the Texas coast. Residents and tourists in locations such as Corpus Christi, Aransas Pass, San Jose Island, Matagorda Island, Port Lavaca, Port O'Connor, Bay City, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Galveston, Texas City, Houston, and Port Author should ALL prepare for a very dangerous landfalling major hurricane.... http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news