Reply #12: influenza is a very deadly virus.... [View All]

[mike_c]

Don't underestimate it. It mutates rapidly and recombines readily, so it always presents a moving immune system target. Some strains are highly virulent, others have high mortality rates, and some-- the worst-- combine virulence and high mortality. They are scythes that kill millions.

It is a mistake to dismiss the Spanish flu as an artifact of circumstances-- it really was an influenza variant that combined high virulence and mortality. Right now the avian flu appears to have exceedingly high mortality, but low human-to-human transmissibility. The data are not unequivical, and there are now several strains of avian flu, which makes it more difficult to predict what will happen, but there is little doubt that at least some strains have very high mortality rates, even when excellent medical care is provided. If one of those strains mutates or (more likely) recombines with another flu variant and acquires higher virulence among humans, the result could be catastrophic.