Reply #4: A couple things from someone who has been there [View All]

[wmbrew0206]

1. Never trust anything Sadr says. Right now he is trying to find a way get back his credibility with the Shias. Sadr will play this like he is working toward peace while ordering some of his militias to continue to fight. Once the US and Iraqis fight back against these militias, Sadr will say that Shia civilians are being murdered and the JAM militias are fighting back to defend themselves.

2. The US forces in Iraq would like nothing better than for this to be true. No one wants to have to go into Sadr City but it is a sanctuary for the JAM militias and it is where the rockets targeting the Green Zone are coming from (The counter battery radar can pinpoint the rockets points of origin). Everyone is hoping that Sadr can be sidelined politically because it will be costly to do it militarily.

3. Sadr and his followers are the last big threat to the Iraqi government. The remnants of AQI have been pushed to Mosul and cannot launch any major offensive operations. There still is organized crime and corruption in Iraq and always will be, but that is a law enforcement issue not a security issue. However, if Sadr's JAM Militias actually disarm, the Iraqi government will have the conditions necessary to stabilize the country and be able to concentrate on reconstruction instead of worry about security.