Reply #8: About this poll. [View All]

[David__77]

The right-wing Hugh Hewitt Show was hosting Schwarzenegger cheerleader Rep. David Dreier who is promoting a yet-to-be-released "ABC poll" that shows the recall ahead "63% to 35%" with Schwarzenegger leading Bustamante "45% to 29%." I have to use quotes around these figures they're so bogus! Two points need to be made about this poll:

First, the poll was conducted by "Survey USA" (http://www.surveyusa.com/) for a few ABC affiliates. The notable thing about the poll is that the pool of respondees in composed of what Survey USA calls "Certain Voters." This only includes, I have heard, those who have voted in the past two elections and answer other questions satisfactorily. During the 2002 gubernatorial race, the polls, which were more accurate, used a different methodology of "Likely Voters." (See http://www.surveyusa.com/electiontrackrecord.html) Of course, narrowing the field to only the most absolutely certain voters will produce a more right-leaning result. With voter interest in this election at a high level, we expect HIGHER turnout than in 11/2002.

Second, the last Survey USA poll on the recall, conducted on 8/9-8/10, showed the recall leading by a WIDER margin of "66% to 32%." AND, Schwarzenegger had a MUCH LARGER lead over Bustamante of "51% to 17%"! (See poll at http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html)If we are to take anything from this new poll, we must see that this poll's Schwarzenegger lead has been better than sliced in half, from 34 points to only 16 points. And the recall support has waned by six points as well. That is very significant, even in a deeply flawed poll.