Reply #7: which Kennedy? [View All]

[liberalpragmatist]

I think RFK would have won the nomination and the presidency if he hadn't been shot.

As for JFK? I think he would have escalated Vietnam in the short term, but nowhere near the level that Johnson did. JFK would have pulled out relatively early and before there was much public outcry and would probably have made a reproachment with Cuba.

In domestic policy, Kennedy would have gotten some key civil rights legislation through, but it probably would not have been as deep as Johnson was able to get. Johnson could rely on his old Senate connections and sympathy from the "Kennedy legacy."

My guess is that in '68, had JFK been wrapping up his second term, Johnson would've been the Dem nominee (despite his age) and Nelson Rockefeller would've been the Republican nominee. I think Rockefeller would have won and would have been the one to finally get the complete civil rights legislation through.

Meanwhile, the Southern Dixiecrats and conservative Republicans would have abandoned both parties and created a new Conservative Party, which would have quickly spelled doom for both rump major parties. I think the Democratic and Republican parties, now both rump liberal factions would, in the post-Rockefeller years, merged to form a new Progressive Party, perhaps with RFK at the helm.

But obviously there's no way of knowing, and everybody's opinion would be different.