Reply #34: Quagmire. We Can't Stay. We Can't Leave. [View All]

[Strelnikov_]

Next edition of Webster's dictionary will have the entry 'Quagmire, see Iraq'

Ramping up (along with with massive aid/rebuilding) is one solution. That is, make a real effort.

The other approach, of course, is to pull out. If we do, we had better put a WW2 level mobilization effort into energy transformation, because we will be losing Persian Gulf oil within several years thereafter.

I cannot say in which path the least risk lies. But, just on what I know, I say pull-out. My rationale is as follows:

- There is no guarantee that the rampup would work in preventing general gulf-wide civil war.
- Either path will take vast amounts of resources. At least with the pull-out option we will have begun the transformation of our energy supply.
- Even if rampup works, the region will be out of oil in 20-30 years anyway.

One thing I can say for sure, the current approach is not working.

And if we do exercise the pull-out option, and a massive energy transformation is not implemented concurrent with this event, we are in big trouble. Rent or read Brin's 'The Postman', it doesn't sound like fun.

The extremely dangerous situation the GOP has placed us in does not end with a pull-out from Iraq, it simply changes the nature of the threat.