Reply #21: Graham has to decide [View All]

[Adjoran]

Florida is one of the states where you cannot run for two offices at the same time, so if he has any idea of keeping his Senate seat, he needs to get out of the Presidential race.

Dean is obviously a serious contender, with more money and leading in the polls. His biggest problem is the expectations game. Once you win the "frontrunner" laurel, you have to perform. He needs a good second in Iowa - a win would be a big boost - and to finish at least second in NH, although it would help him immensely to beat Kerry in their mutual backyard. He may not run as strongly in states like Delaware, South Carolina, and Arizona, which follow NH as early tests, and will have to fight the inevitable media portrait of a "campaign at the crossroads" before heading to states where he runs better. A win in any of those second-tier events would be another jewel in his crown, though.

Kerry has not had a good time of it this summer. First, his putative status as frontrunner was usurped by the Dean boom. Then his key advantage as military hero was suddenly outranked by Clark. As one old hand also put it, "Nobody ever 'reorganizes' or 'relaunches' a campaign that is going well."

Kerry must win NH, or finish a very close second. Then he must win another state quickly to reestablish his star power.

Lieberman may run fourth in neighbor NH, not a bright start. But he has some support in SC and has organized strongly in AZ, planning that one or both will be his breakthrough state to get back on the pundits' radar. If he fails in both, he will get out.

Gephardt is trying desperately to elevate his candidacy to the "first tier" as well, although he usually polls among the leaders, he never seems to be THE leader. He's been organizing in neighboring Iowa for 16 years now, and needs at least a strong second there. But he has a lot of dependable labor support in South Carolina, and could win Michigan if he can stay in the race that long. He needs an unexpected good finish early to do it.

Edwards has a clear mission: he has to show well in SC, and hope the other results are very mixed so that uncomitted and loosely committed voters start looking for a new candidate. He's a very long shot at best, although he could be a viable Veep candidate in some scenarios. IMO he should have paid more attention to constituent service so he could earn reelection, and tried again in '08 or '12 or '16, but I understand he is taking a huge pay cut in politics.

Clark is getting in very late in terms of organization. Bill Clinton didn't start until October of 1991, but the primary season was longer then, and the field smaller. Clark needs a breakthrough early to keep his mystique alive and keep the donations flowing in. He can probably write off Iowa, as almost every political volunteer is already working for somebody else. But a third or strong fourth in NH would not diminish him, since the others have such a head start, and then a win in SC or AZ or strong seconds in both would keep his momentum going.

Graham will get out to run for reelection to the Senate. Was Graham in?

Kucinich and Moseley-Braun will stay in as long as they can raise enough money to run niche campaigns. One high state party operative told me that Moseley-Braun had been convinced to run so that Sharpton wouldn't be the only "black" candidate, and that she will get a convention speech instead of Al if she stays in as long as he does. Al's checkered past is too much red meat for the repubs, and given the modern formula of highly scripted, offend-no-one-in-middle-America
conventions, if he gets a speech it will be at 3 a.m. EDT.