Reply #38: The Republicans have been pulling for Dean for many months. [View All]

[Julien Sorel]

There is Rove's classic 'Go Howard Dean, that's the one we want,' which was back in June, I think, and a couple of Republican strategists have acknowledged that Dean would be the easiest candidate for them to beat. And then there are the polls, as well as political reality here: Dean, as a Northeastern 'liberal' who supports gay civil unions, polls poorly in the South, which means Bush wouldn't have to work very hard to keep the South in his corner (he won every southern state in 2000).

Here is a map showing political leanings in this country:




I'm not sure how aware of our political system you are, but our elections are decided on a state-by-state basis. As you can see by that map, the Republicans own the southern states, and Dean is not going to make a dent in that. A Dean candidacy would depend on winning every single state that Gore won in 2000, plus hoping to pick off one of the Republican leaners to make up the margin, without losing a single marginal Blue state. It isn't the best way to go as long as you have an alternative, especially when your opponent knows this, and has a giant war chest to spend in the battleground areas. Bush could actually challenge Democrats in New Mexico and Oregon (which Dems barely won in 2000), and Pennsylvania, and that would be lights out for Democratic chances. From a purely analytical standpoint, Dean is not an optimal choice, and the Republicans know this as well as anyone. Any concerns they have about Dean are much less likely to be about Dean's strength than they are about Bush's weakness. I'd rather my opponent was worried about my candidate's chances, than afraid about the status of his own.