Reply #11: I think/hope you're right [View All]

[elperromagico]

Some of the major things Bush has done (creating a massive deficit, expanding the size of government) are completely the opposite of what the Republicans have generally stood for. We know that his stances on gay rights and abortion might turn off Log Cabin Republicans and pro-choice Republicans. Is he turning off the fiscal conservatives and libertarians as well? It's possible.

I fear, however, that the Republicans will do the equivalent of our ABB; in other words, they'll vote for Bush because they want a Republican in the White House (even if they don't agree with him on all the issues).

The best indicator of a Bush defeat, IMO, would be strong opposition for the GOP nomination (think Pat Buchanan in 1992 or Ronald Reagan in 1976). It would show that Bush is weak, and that his support within his own party is dwindling. If a third-party candidate appeared to sap votes away from him in the general, that would be even better. Look at the damage Perot did to Bush 41 in '92, or the damage Wallace did to Humphrey in '68.

I'd love to believe we can beat Bush in a landslide, but I just don't see it happening... yet.