Reply #33: the Dean electoral stategy would be the same as every other dem [View All]

[CMT]

basically and it is this--carry the Gore states and two or three others as a cushion. You give me the choice of running mate and mine is Bill Richardson of NM--great ability and experience: congressman, energy secretary, UN ambassador, foreign policy troubleshooter--even Bush sent him to North Korea, and now Governor of NM. Also the first Hispanic on a national ticket--sure to rev up this critical voting bloc. I also think that Dean will attract many of the 2.8 million Nader supporters from '00--if this board is any indication there is a possibility that even if Nader runs again Dean could possibly attract half his vote.

1. New England--I think Dean will go all out to win every state of his home region. It can be done. Gore won five out of six--losing only NH. Dean should carry his homestate of Vermont over Bush and certainly even Dean haters such as yourself would acknowledge he can win Massachusetts (why even George McGovern did that!!). Also, Rhode Island is dependably Democratic. Those three are the most solid. On the second leir as leaning Democratic I would put Connecticut and Maine--they may require a couple of visits to firm up in September--but I expect they will also vote Dean over Bush. Finally the toss up state--NH. With some work and an economy which has declined since Bush became president and I think Dean will pick up votes of people who voted for Nader in 2000--I think Dean wins this states four electoral votes.

Total from New England: 35 electoral votes.

2. North Atlantic States-- Dean will win New York. He has a lot of enthusisam there and besides Bush lost NY to Gore by nearly 2 Million votes--I don't think with the economy and even 9/11 that Bush can turn it around to carry NY (doesn't matter who the candidate is). NJ has been moving Democratic since the 90's and Gore won it by almost 600,000. I think it will be more competitive but that the Democrats will win it. DC is solidly Dem. Maryland has a strong African-American population which has been continually disappointed in Bush and the DC suburbs have been getting more Democratic. For rural areas Dean's stand on guns will be a boost. Barbara Mikulski is up for re-election and she will bring out a strong vote to help the entire ticket. Maryland is in the bag. Delaware may be more competitive but it should still go Democratic based on the trends since the 90's. Finally, Pennsylvania. This one is always going to be competitive. You put Ridge on the ticket with Bush (not going to happen it will be Cheney again--but I'll play along)--ok, that brings up the issue of homeland security and how states including Pa have not gotten the money from this administration to implement it. Also, Rendell is now Governor and controls the party machinery--he is going to work very hard to gotv for two high profile races the senate race where Arlen Specter will face Hoeffel and the presidential race. Key voting blocs include African-Americans, seniors, women--it will be tight but I expect Dean will prevail even with Ridge on the ticket.

Total electoral votes from North Atlantic States: 83.

3. The South. This will be a tough region for all the democrats even for southern dems. If I were Dean I would concentrate on a handful of states. Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Tennessee. Six states and we would need to carry three of them. These six states have 73 electoral votes. The one most likely to switch is West Virginia with 5 electoral votes. Why? The state has seen unemployment rise under Bush, it is usually dependably Democratic, and Dean's stand on guns will neutralize that issue. Georgia--I put this state on the list in case Thurbert Baker or Shirley Franklin-two strong African-American candidates are on the ballot for the Senate. If so, this will bring out a strong African-American turnout and benefit the ticket statewide--including president. Florida, yes Gore won it, but it will still be tough--and the opportunities to steal it with Jeb in charge are still there. Louisiana, has a strong African-American vote which if turns out strongly will make this a competitive state. The AA vote did turn out strongly for Landrieu and she won in a race which Rove was working hard against her and we also had the unexpected bonus of picking up a house seat. Arkansas and Tennessee--again mobilize the base (AA) and use the gun issue to neutralize Bush. My prediction: We win West Virgina, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

Total electoral votes from South: 20.

The Midwest. Illinois has been trending Democratic since 1988. In 2002, they bucked the trend and elected a straight Democratic statewide ticket. Dean has a strong organization in the state. Illinois will be for Dean. It is our anchor state in the region. Three of the states in the region gave Nader above average percentages in 2000: Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. I have already said that after four years of Bush and Dean's appeal to some Naderites that he has the potential to pick up many votes there. Wisconsin and Iowa have voted Democratic in every presidential election since '88 and Minnesota in every one since '76. Of the three I would say Iowa is going to be the toughest--but doable. The economies of these three states have also declined under Bush and this is ultimately what decides an election. Also, these three states have large anti-war tendencies which will aid Dean. In Wisconsin, is a top Senate race with Feingold on the ticket. In places like Madison the turnout will be very high and this will benefit the Dean ticket as well. I think we will win Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. Next Michigan, this is a toss up state like Pennsylvania and the campaign will have to give it lots of attention. Still if people vote their pocketbooks and Dean can make a convincing case for them to discard of Bush then we win this state. Also, Dean has made clear that he intends to compete in Ohio which Gore dropped out of three weeks before the election and lost by only four-points. Now Ohio won't be easy but it will force the Bush camp to also defend it. Missouri will also be competed in.

Total electoral votes from Midwest: 65--we win every Gore state by picking up Nader voters from '00 and stressing the economy and healthcare.

The West: This is the region where Richardson's selection will have the most positive impact (though nationally the latino population is also growing). Bush won 35% of the latino vote in '00 and is pushing for 40% in 2004. With Richardson on the ticket as a historic first it will not happen. In fact, pride in their favorite son will probably mean a higher turnout and percentage for the Democratic ticket--up to 70% and Bush down to 30%. A Dean/Richardson ticket will easily win on the coast: California (like Gore I doubt Dean would even have to campaign in this state), Oregon, and Washington. Oregon gave a high percentage to Nader but as stated before I believe the Nader vote will not be as high as in '00 and they won't be defecting to Bush. Next, Richardson will deliver New Mexico (Gore won it by only a few hundred votes in '00). The increase in the Latino vote will also make Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada competitive. We need to carry at least one of those three states and I think we can do it in Arizona.

Total electoral votes from the West: 88.

Total electoral votes for a Dean/Richardson ticket: 291 (21 more than necessary) and done without carrying Florida, Ohio, Texas, or Missouri.

Why Dean/Richardson wins (a Summary)
1. The progressive wing of the party hates Bush and will turn out strongly.
2. Dean is showing strength among former Nader voters. Even if Nader is on the ballot in '04 I think he will pick up half of the Nader vote from '00.
3. The Richardson selection will rev up a powerful voting bloc that Bush has been targeting--Latinos. Latino strength has been growing nationwide but it will be most potent in the west. Bush wants 40% of the Latino vote in '00 but if Dean choose Richardson not only would turnout among Latinos grow (a historic first and great enthusiasm) but I think instead of 40% of the Latino vote Bush would get between 25-30% which is worse than the 35% he got against Gore. Also, Texas has lots of Latinos which will be just as euphoric. While we won't win Texas it might force Bush to spend some time and $$ there that he otherwise wouldn't have to.
4. African-Americans who were showing great improvements under the Clinton administration is another potent voting bloc and they will not support Bush. Typically they give 85-90 percent of their votes to Dems and I expect this to be the case in 2004 since under Bush African Americans have seen their unemployment rate jump from historic lows to much higher than national average. But Dean will have to reach out to them and campaign agressively to generate enthusiasm and turnout.
5. The anti-war vote. Iraq is still an issue with the country still in chaos and our soldiers still over there with sniper deaths occuring. More people are disatisfied with the administration on the war and the $$ ($1 billion per week!!) and Dean had the forsight to be against the war from the beginning and a growing amount of people are coming to realize that we made a mistake going into Iraq.
6. Healthcare and the Economy. Typical Democratic issues and with Bush they are winnable ones. Even if the economy does begin some kind of uptick it will not be strong and the unemployment rate will not be anywhere near as low as when Bush came in. Dean, as a doctor will have great credibility on healthcare and over 3 million people have lost health insurance as president. Dean has a plan and he will campaign hard on these issues.