Reply #3: I seem to be the only one here who bets politics [View All]

[Awsi Dooger]

I live in Las Vegas and have been in a 16-man election pool every two years since '96, along with making offshore and man-to-man wagers on individual races. Several months ago I posted the offshore odds on Republicans holding the presidency in '04, 2/3, and it sailed through Politics and Campaigns minus a reply.

Correct, David REE, these markets are more accurate than polls and very interesting to watch. But I never get involved because there are seldom any bargains.

Contrast that to offshore or even bookie wagering, where I got Clinton as only a 2/5 chalk on election eve '92, when he was a cinch. Also in '00 when the late Zogby poll in New York plummeted the odds on Hillary down to less than 1/2 vs. Lazio, an absolute farce.

Last year I reluctantly, and against my politics and hopes, wagered on many of the Republican senate candidates because my data indicated the states were far more Republican leaning than the late polls indicated.

Of course, some of the best political bets I ever made have conveniently been left undetailed. They lost.