Larry Sabatos analysis shows Graham has best chance of beating Bush [View All]

[lkinsale]

Jeff Book took a look at the University of Virginia Center for Politics director Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Election 04 site, and has this extremely interesting analysis of the information gathered there:

"First, Sabato projects each candidate's likelihood of carrying their own home state, and analyzes whether this gives Democrats a state they would otherwise not be likely to win.

"The homestate projections are at:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_homestate-table2.htm

"He says Graham is a "good" bet to carry Florida, Gephardt is only "fair" to carry Missouri, and Edwards is "fair to poor" to carry North Carolina. All three are states that Democrats would not be likely to win without a home-state nominee. Lieberman is a "good to excellent" bet to carry Connecticut, but Democrats would likely win there anyhow.

"Second, Sabato projects Electoral College totals, running Bush against each of the Democratic contenders.

"The Electoral College projections are at:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-othercands.htm

"He shows both Graham and Lieberman as 287-258 winners over Bush; Gephardt as a 276-262 winner over Bush; and Edwards as a 275-263 winner over Bush. He shows Kerry as a 264-274 loser to Bush. Given the choice, one would always go with the candidate who would produce the highest electoral vote, because it leaves the most room for error.

"Graham and Lieberman's electoral vote projections are premised on both of them carrying Florida against Bush. Gephardt's is based on winning Missouri; Edwards's is based on winning North Carolina.

"If Graham and Lieberman are both projected as 287-258 winners over Bush, with Florida as the swing state producing their majorities, then the question would be whether Graham or Lieberman is more certain to carry Florida. Sabato doesn't explicitly say that Graham is more likely to carry Florida than Lieberman, but that's pretty obviously true.

"So the statement that Sabato thinks Graham has the best chance against Bush is based on his projection that Graham and Lieberman have the best chance against Bush in the Electoral College, read together with the assumption that Graham would run stronger in Florida than Lieberman would."

*****

Sabotos does not make specific predictions, but he shows strong indicators for Graham. I think we should be taking a dead serious look at these indicators as we decide on which candidate will defeat Bush in 04.

1) Graham's voted against the Iraq war as a unsafe diversion from our true security needs (he was saying back in October all the things that the media is finally catching up to now)

2) Graham has been open and pointed in his statements about the deceit and sececry of the Bush admin

3) He appeals strongly to "lost" rural voters

4) He has executive experience with successfully running the 4th largest state for 2 terms

5) He had 3-term congressional experience (he knows how to deal with those guys)

6) He's proposed an economic plan to reverse Bush's fiscal priorities, reset the top rate at 38.6 percent - lower than the rate when President Clinton left office -- and create a "Millionaire's Bracket" at 40%, expand college scholarship tax credits and make the same $10,000 for advanced education and training available to kids who choose not to go to college but enter the workforce and seek training to advance their skills.

7) He's got an excellent environmental and minority record in Florida, and more...hey

I THINK IT'S TIME WE TOOK GRAHAM A LITTLE MORE SERIOUSLY AROUND DU. YA KNOW?

Why you want to waste a top-notch contender against Bush?