Reply #59: Three weeks before [View All]

[Nicholas_J]

Deans MoveOnm polling was 54 percent. It took only ONE week of minor effort by other candidates, for the most part sending ONE email to those weho have joined their campaign web sites, to knock Dean down to 44 percent, which is a strong indication of how fragile Deans campaign is. In one week, with minimal effort, on the Internet, Deans strongest suit, he dropped 20 percent in his support.

His supporters are actually rafving over his high support in an online primary in which only a scant few days earlier, he was predicted as EASILY winning, with no effort.

On the other hand, Kerry;s MeetUp support is small, but it has grown 700 percent in under 2 months. Dean has not seen that kind of percentage support in his online support. SAme thng with other candidates.

Sorry,Amerikav60, if Dean can be knocked down by that large a percentage in a week of minimal effort by the other candidates, his support base is very seriously, very weak.

ANd Kerry has not formally started campaigning yet. Dean has been campaigning in Iowa for exactly 2 years. FOr every visit to Iowa that Kerry has made, Dean has made fifty. Yet Gephardt, who has been barely campaigning, polls higher than Dean in many multiples of the margin of error. Dean cannot hope to win in Iowa. And it in all likelihood, will not be able to win in New Hampshire. Polling data puts N.H. firmly in Kerry's pocket. Dena has more support ONLY in the 18-27 age group, they equally split the 28-49. Kerry is well ahead in the 50-64, and has three times the support in the over 65 voting groups. Which means Dean is not running to win, but to try to stay in the race. If he doen not come in second in one of these races, he is done. If he come in second in one, it simply merans it will be a matter of time before he loses.