Reply #16: We'll know soon enough [View All]

[Boomer]

In simple terms, says Simmons, the Saudis have produced their fields under simultaneous primary and secondary recovery, having instituted huge waterflooding programs relatively soon after completing field development.

“All of these fields are old,” he pointed out, “but Saudi Aramco has managed them in a ‘gold standard’ fashion by instituting careful and rigorous water injection to maintain very high reservoir pressures. They’re effectively sweeping the reservoirs until the easily recoverable oil is gone. In so doing, they have defied the standard decline curves. With water injection, they’ve maintained reservoir pressures above the bubble point. The trouble is, once they finally finish the sweep, they’ve done both primary and secondary depletion. There isn’t any Act 2.”

Apparently, detailed knowledge of this double dipping has not been common. Saudi production figures and field statistics have been regarded largely as state secrets since the 1980s. Nevertheless, said Simmons, most world oil supply studies assume that Saudi production is nearly inexhaustible and can be increased almost effortlessly by whatever world demand dictates.