Reply #17: In time, sure. [View All]

[brokensymmetry]

As you point out, there's lots of coal and it can be converted. Railroads could be rebuilt. Shipping could as well - and ships can be fired with coal, or with nuclear power.

And, again as you point out, nuclear power is an option.

The challenge is one of time. If the oil crunch hits hard and soon, and the lead time for such strategies as we've discussed requires decades, then disruptions will occur. If the oil crunch is a lot further off in time, and we start doing all of the things you mention and more, then many of the problems can be avoided.

Trouble is, no one knows for sure when the crunch will hit. No one knows how hard it will hit. And we aren't doing much to implement your strategies or anything else.

There's a further problem, and that's cost. Yes, we can get the coal. Yes, we can convert the coal. But there are costs, both in terms of money and in terms of energy, to extract the coal and convert it. The same thing applies to nuclear power.

So, on the one hand, you can still have your coffee, roll, and juice. But it will cost a lot more. Meaning you'll have less to spend on other things. Which results in reallocation of labor and capital...and, hence, disruption again as the economy adjusts.