Reply #23: It depends, I guess on your level of cynicism. [View All]

[NNadir]

History is of course littered with poor choices. On the other hand, historically people had much less information than they have now.

In my (admittedly) optimistic view, the growth of fundamentalism and dogmatism (and its sister hysteria) in modern times is not so much a strengthening trend, but it is rather a dying gasp screaming against the inescapable reality of the primacy of the scientific method, which involves measurement of things as they are and drawing inference based on those measurements. I believe that all we need to do in this matter of energy is to quietly and patiently refer to the data.

For a historical precedent, I prefer the case of Galileo. It did not result that the Pope's decree in any way effected a single orbital parameter of the earth, or of Jupiter, or of Mars. They continued to move as they always had. Ultimately it was necessary to overrule the Pope and not Galileo. History records the Pope as a fool. So it is with energy choices. We will not be able to use coal and oil forever simply because if we attempt this, so many of us will be killed that the demand for energy will necessarily go down. This is a simple feedback loop and it is independent of either ethics, reason or dogma.

I would not spend all of the energy (personal, not physical) that I do arguing the merits of energy solutions if I believed that the situation were hopeless and intractable and that we must simply have an irretrievable disaster before we wake up. I do believe that we can carefully tip toe back from the abyss, but as is always the case in times of danger, we will succeed only if we are aware, awake and careful.

I have traveled in liberal circles my entire adult life, over thirty years. I've seen a sea change in the liberal view of energy (including my own), especially with respect to nuclear energy which increasingly - and correctly - is being now be disentangled in many liberal minds from the justifiably maligned specter of nuclear war. People challenge me here all the time based on historical liberal views of nuclear energy, but even so, I very much doubt that ten years ago in a liberal place like this that I would be able to have obtained as many expressions of support for my argument that nuclear energy is clean and safe. One of the great strengths of liberalism is that liberals are forearmed at opening their minds. I believe that we have that capability as a species.

I believe that humanity as a whole will ultimately overcome this vast environment challenge, not without serious scars, but nonetheless alive. I am not sure that the United States will be a part of this renewal, but we would not be the first nation to be discarded by history after blazing a trail.