Fuel from food? The feast is over. (Salon) [View All]

[Dogmudgeon]

http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/world/2008/11/23/D94KOK880_food_s_future_biofuels/index.html">Fuel from food? The feast is over.

Nov 23rd, 2008 | AMSTERDAM, Netherlands -- In future years we may look back at the Great Mexican Tortilla Crisis of 2006 as the time when ethanol lost its vroom.

Right or wrong, that was when blame firmly settled on biofuels for the surge in food prices. The diversion of American corn from flour to fuel put the flat corn bread out of reach for Mexico's poorest.

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Food prices rose steadily for the past three years until they peaked last June. Before they retreated, the World Bank said corn prices had tripled since January 2005. Rice and wheat weren't far behind.

Around the world, the poor -- U.N. figures say the number of undernourished is approaching 1 billion -- protested that they were hungrier than ever. Food riots erupted in 18 countries, from Bangladesh to Haiti. Some 75,000 Mexicans marched in their capital, accusing the government of "stealing tortillas." Some countries imposed export bans to hoard their grain stocks.

World grain harvests had soared, reaching a record 2.3 billion tons last year. But demand continued to grow, not only for biofuel but for animal feed to satisfy an increasingly meaty diet for the growing middle class in India and China.

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I do have another point to raise that I have seldom seen -- biofuel feedstock will compete for nitrogen and other nutrients used by (food) agriculture. Biofuel development should be pursued as part of a comprehensive agricultural program that also restores the soil, which has taken a huge hit in the past century. Recycling nutrients after the carbohydrates are turned into fuel would be a step in the right direction.

On the other hand, I am inclined to think that we are too far gone to reasonably avoid a crash by simple policy and technological improvements. I say "reasonably" because it's certainly not impossible; we just won't make the changes until some crisis is upon us, and those changes will not be thought out very well, as the recent "Tortillas-to-Fuel" episode shows.

Right now, oil is cheap, but demand for it is being destroyed like so many million-dollar houses in Santa Ana season. Biofuel's recent resurgence may be a moot point altogether.

--p!