Reply #4: 6/24 Update - West Caribbean Wave Holding At 40% Chance Of Development Into Tropical Depression [View All]

[hatrack]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS...AND THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
MISSION TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
NNNN

EDIT/END

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml