Reply #18: Woops, I did have a math error there... [View All]

[cascadiance]

Added in the four state totals twice by mistake. Doing it nationwide would help over the present system, but not by much. In case anyone is wondering about the state-by-state breakdowns that I figured them to be (in case someone wants to correct me on any of them), here they are:

Actual Electoral votes:
State (Actual Kerry-Bush) (Percentage Kerry-Bush) (difference) (best/worst difference)
-------------------------------------------------------------
* California (55-0) (29-25-1) (-25/-26) (-25/-26)
Florida (0-27) (13-14) (+13) (-12/-13)
* New York (31-0) (18-12-1) (-12/-13) (-24/-26)
Texas (0-34) (13-21) (+13) (-11/-13)
-------------------------------------------------------------
Alabama (0-9) (3-6) (+3) (-8/-10)
Alaska (0-3) (1-2) (+1) (-7/-9)
Arizona (0-10) (4-6) (+4) (-3/-5)
Arkansas (0-6) (3-3) (+3) (0/-2)
Colorado (0-9) (4-5) (+4) (+4/+2)
Connecticut (7-0) (4-3) (-3) (+1/-1)
DC (3-0) (3-0) (0) (+1/-1)
Delaware (3-0) (2-1) (-1) (0/-2)
Georgia (0-15) (6-9) (+6) (+6/+4)
Hawaii (4-0) (2-2) (-2) (+4/+2)
Idaho (0-4) (1-3) (+1) (+5/+3)
Illinois (21-0) (12-9) (-9) (-4/-6)
Indiana (0-11) (4-7) (+4) (0/-2)
Iowa (0-7) (3-4) (+3) (+3/+1)
Kansas (0-6) (2-4) (+2) (+5/+3)
Kentucky (0-8) (3-5) (+3) (+8/+6)
Louisiana (0-9) (4-5) (+4) (+12/+10)
Maine (4-0) (2-2) (-2) (+10/+8)
Maryland (10-0) (6-4) (-4) (+6/+4)
* Massachusetts (12-0) (7-4-1) (-5/-6) (+1/-2)
Michigan (17-0) (9-8) (-8) (-7/-10)
Minnesota (10-0) (5-5) (-5) (-12/-15)
Mississippi (0-6) (2-4) (+2) (-10/-13)
Missouri (0-11) (6-5) (+5) (-5/-8)
Montana (0-3) (1-2) (+1) (-4/-7)
Nebraska (0-5) (2-3) (+2) (-2/-5)
Nevada (0-5) (2-3) (+2) (0/-3)
New Hampshire (4-0) (2-2) (-2) (-2/-5)
New Jersey (15-0) (8-7) (-7) (-9/-12)
New Mexico (0-5) (2-3) (+2) (-7/-10)
North Carolina (0-15) (7-8) (+7) (0/-3)
North Dakota (0-3) (1-2) (+1) (+1/-2)
Ohio (0-20) (10-10) (+10) (+11/+8)
Oklahoma (0-7) (2-5) (+2) (+13/+10)
Oregon (7-0) (4-3) (-3) (+10/+7)
Pennsylvania (21-0) (11-10) (-10) (0/-3)
Rhode Island (3-0) (2-1) (-1) (-1/-4)
South Carolina (0-8) (3-5) (+3) (+2/-1)
South Dakota (0-3) (1-2) (+1) (+3/0)
Tennessee (0-11) (5-6) (+5) (+8/+5)
Utah (0-5) (1-4) (+1) (+9/+6)
Vermont (3-0) (2-1) (-1) (+8/+5)
Virginia (0-13) (6-7) (+6) (+!4/+11)
Washington (11-0) (6-5) (-5) (+9/+6)
West Virginia (0-5) (2-3) (+2) (+11/+8)
Wisconsin (10-0) (5-5) (-5) (+6/+3)
Wyoming (0-3) (1-2) (+1) (+7/+4)

* - a dangling electoral vote that percentages can't really decide without some other criteria.

So total, if percentage rule was counted everyplace, the revised numbers would be:

At best for Kerry (+7 votes):
Bush - 279 votes (51.85874%)
Kerry - 259 votes (48.14126%)

At worst for Kerry:
Bush - 282 votes (52.41636%)
Kerry - 256 votes (47.58364%)

These numbers are a lot closer to the real percentages of the vote, but still give Bush a percentage point advantage over a straight national vote. So yes, option 2 would be preferable to present status quo given last election's results. I'll try and look at the 2000 election when I get more time later to see if it would have been preferable then too.