Reply #13: what is your reasoning for that? [View All]

[neoteric lefty]

As of a few months ago (things may have changed a bit, I do not have that information), Iraq was exporting less oil than it did before the invasion. Iraq makes up only a small percentage of of the woirlds oil production, only makes up about 6-7% of OPEC's total export. Even if all exports stopped out of Iraq, it would only be a minor bump in the road. The only way prices would skyrocket in my opinion, would either be a major breakdown in oil production (for example, a bombing on a major Saudi pipeline) or investor fears of civil war breaking out outside of Iraq (in SA or Iran, for example). To say that prices would double seems to be a little much, but I want to know why you feel the way you do.


PS: Iraq's oil exportas seem to be about 20% down from March-2003 levels:
URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/supply.html
Excel File: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11a.xls