Reply #18: He has been the dominant candidate for the GOP the past 2 months-- and others are tough, too [View All]

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

This is why Rudy himself has picked up the frontrunner mantle for the GOP-- he has consistently been the most popular in the field for many weeks now.

Besides, it's not just Rudy who poses trouble for us-- Romney in particular picks up increasing support as his own name recognition grows, and he'd be just as tough or even tougher than Rudy if nominated (Blue State governor, broad Swing appeal, good speaker).

The point being, that if we're expecting the GOP to nominate an arch-conservative who doesn't have national potential, we're going to be disappointed. Whether they choose Giuliani or Romney, they're going to be selecting someone who's consistently been shown to have broad appeal to a wide selection of voters and be very tough in a national election. And don't pretend that Bush's woes will have much effect in 2008-- especially if someone with some distance from Bush is nominated, Bush's own unpopularity will have little impact on that candidate's perception. Just look at how much support the weak Gerald Ford garnered in 1976, as someone else has pointed out, despite the resignation of both Nixon and Agnew for scandal and the severe economic reversals of the period!

Individual polls themselves will swing around a bit, but what matters, again, is the overall trend, which consistently shows that Hillary is by far our weakest candidate on a national scale against Giuliani, Romney, McCain, whomwever-- whereas Obama is consistently our strongest and most competitive. Hillary has the dangerous distinction of thus far being the Dem frontrunner while being the most unpopular, with the most negatives, nationwide. That's the take-home message here, and it's one we should be heeding well.