Reply #33: Ann Selzer discussing Des Moines Register Poll [View All]

[Adelante]

Here is some of the transcript:

Today’s Iowa poll is out. You’re assuming that 60 percent of the voters in the Democratic caucuses will be first-time caucus attendees. How did you assume that? Why did you assume it?

ANN SELZER, Des Moines Register: Well, actually, I assumed nothing. That’s what my data told me.

We put our method in place, and we let the voters speak to us. And we found that 60 percent of the people who told us they were definitely or probably going to the caucus indicated that it would be their first time at caucus.

It’s not all that much bigger than 2004. It was 45 percent then. But this stands to be a historic caucus, in terms of turnout.

-snip

ANN SELZER: Well, of course they’re reacting, because they’re not in the lead. And I would expect them to find criticisms.

In terms of the first-time caucusgoers, even if we statistically play with the data and say, “OK, well, let’s make it look like 2004,” Barack Obama still wins. So that’s a pretty robust finding, and we feel pretty good about it.

-snip

JUDY WOODRUFF: You’re also saying that 40 percent of the voters in the Democratic caucuses are going to be independents. How do you know that?

ANN SELZER: Well, again, that’s what our data is telling us. And is that a surprise? Sure. It’s something that would raise an eyebrow, because that’s more independents than would have come to any previous caucus.

But as you know in this campaign, just keeping your ear to the ground, there are a lot of people who are independent who are planning to come to caucus. The campaigns are certainly courting independents.

-snip

JUDY WOODRUFF: And, again, you were looking at voters who say they are either definitely or…

ANN SELZER: Or probably…

JUDY WOODRUFF: … probably.

ANN SELZER: … going to attend. And that gives us the advantage, Judy, also to take a look at just those definite attenders and say, “OK, well, what’s the core of what’s going to happen here?” And when you look only at those, it is still a Barack Obama win.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec07/precaucus_1-1.html