Reply #25: I agree that they will be too - because it's only 4 weeks away [View All]

[karynnj]

Why would any of the remaining candidates drop out now? What would they gain? I think Obama will be the nominee, but a week ago, I thought it was more likely HRC would be - after an extremely close finish for all three in Iowa. Right now there is a wave of momentum for Obama and if he wins tomorrow that will continue.

It is easier to be the winner than one of those who lost. You get the happy speech with everyone excitedly cheering. In Iowa, both Edwards and HRC essentially gave "victory" speeches even though they didn't win. But both have become more confrontational - because they almost had to. Obama, on the other hand, has had the luxury of being the smiling, more relaxed one - which makes it easier to convey a sense of calm and thoughtfulness - that is attractive in the midst of anger and accusations. It also seems Presidential.

But, things can change on a dime in this period of time. The collapsed schedule makes it easier to ride the wave and settle the election before anything happened. This is a bad feature of the schedule - but you can't say there was no time for the lot of them to be vetted. This campaign has seemed to have already lasted for years! (though I know that it has been in earsnest just for a year.) Think of what all the candidates have gone through this last year, why would any stop now in the last 4 weeks - when there is even a miniscule chance of winning.

I have not seen the Obama people demanding anyone drop out - they seem happy with Obama's success and are enjoying it. Stretching out the race actually helps Obama as when the future nominee is known, it will be the end of victory celebrations - and those are almost always good events.