Reply #62: Different situations [View All]

[OmahaBlueDog]

Obama: Young, energetic, anti-war, optimistic, big-city liberal: draws favorable JFK comparisons. Running for an open White House
McGovern: Middle aged (at that time), anti-war, great WWII record, but didn't make a big deal about it, small town liberal, hard to draw a good comparison (mabe Truman, kinda sorta)

1972: Popular incumbent President running for reelection, unpopular war, unpopular draft, tremendous social upheaval, good economy
2008: Open White House with unpopular incumbent, unpopular war, no draft (but unpopular retention practices), minor social upheaval, unstable economy

If Obama runs, my guess is he wins: MD, DC, DE, PA, NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, CA, OR, WA, HI, IL, WI, MN, VT, IA
my guess is he has a good shot in: MO, MI, NH, ME, CO, NM, NV
my guess is that he has a punchers chance in: FL, VA, OH, IN, AR
I see the Rebublicans winning: WV, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA (because so many NOLA voters are still displaced), TN, KY, TX, OK, NE, KS, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID,AZ, UT, AK

It will be another squeaker.