Reply #14: the whole electability equation has really shifted this year [View All]

[salin]

it seems, and voter turnout in the primaries and caucuses - esp in open states - affirms, that a whole different formula is at play. See my previous post per how the key issue and turning out repub voters has shifted since 2004. This leaves the main avenue to be not policy negatives but outright smears. How those are handled will play into the voter turnout catagory - but with the primary/caucus turnout being something of 2:1 dems - even an erosion of some support due to dissillusionment due to smear - wouldn't be enough. Why? Because many independents have grown disgusted and impatient with the republicans, with their policies, and the empty rhetoric of the right - they have a greater suppression turnout as evidenced in the primary states.

I have never said or believed this in any other election year. I doubt it will be true in 2012. We are just in what I would call "a perfect storm" - one created by BushCheneyRove -but a perfect storm none the less.