Reply #26: Varies a great deal [View All]

[Nicholas_J]

Onw web site that is tracking the electoral collegeis doing so but is heavily basing where the electoral votes are going to go based on the last polling data for a number of states and that data is a month old now. In a number of close states, like New Hampshire, where Bush had a major lead on Kerry a month ago, polls show Kerry is pulling up on Bush rapidly. Right now Kerry's strength is in the largest states, He sweeps the west coast, almost all of the states surrounding the great lakes Indiana being the only state leaning towards Bush and Wisconsin still too close to call,and much of the northeast with only Pennsylvania as an exception.A map of the states shows Bush with a clear hold in most of the southern tier of states right up to the California state line, with the exception of New Mexico, which is too close to call with Bush and Kerry polling at 47 percent each. It is odd that polling in the states that are critical and closely divided have come to a near standstill, and most of the polls done in those states have been done by rather unknown and known to be biased pollsters, and it becomes necessary to find out who paid for the polls to figure that into the pollsters results.

Still what is most critical is that Kerry is doing as well as he is against and incumbent. THe most important polling data for an incumbent is the polls that rate the president, and those do not look promising for Bush. in electoral votes Kerry now has 196 to an anticipated 202 for Bush, and this only results from a single poll in which Bush is seen to be ahead in Florida ignoring the five prior polls in that state in which Kerry had a significant lead. It seems too early to be counting electoral votes in many states.