Obama 'broadening' Democratic base [View All]

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http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/05/obama_broadening_democratic_ba.html

Obama 'broadening' Democratic base

The last leg of Clinton's claim to the nomination, public opinion, appears weakened, even among her own core constituency.
Posted May 20, 2008 1:35 PM


Barack Obama has gained his strongest advantage over Hillary Clinton in Gallup's daily tracking poll, with a 'broadening' of support among Democratic constituencies.
The Swamp

by Mark Silva



Sen. Barack Obama has benefitted from "a surge'' of voter support in recent days, according to the Gallup Poll, which has pegged Obama's advantage over Sen. Hillary Clinton among Democrats at a "record'' 16 points.

The results of Gallup's daily tracking surveys from May 16-18 portrayed the biggest advantage for Obama, among Democrats surveyed, since an early April high-point of 11 percentage points.

With Obama poised to claim a majority of the party's pledged delegates in primaries today, and with Obama already claiming a majority of superdelegates, the last leg of Clinton's formula for claiming the nomination depended on the argument that most Democrats would support her. Awaiting the outcome of votes in Kentucky, which Clinton expects to win, and Oregon, which Obama expects to win, Obama has gained a significant national edge in Democratic-voter sentiment.

The "broadening'' of Obama's support among Democrats since he gained the perception of being the party's likely presidential nominee is "fairly widespread,'' Gallup reports. However, the movement is most striking among young men (18-29), people with postgraduate degrees and upper-income voters. Obama holds a two-to-one advantage over Clinton among these voters surveyed, Gallup's Lydia Saad reports.

At the same time, support for Clinton among her long-supporting constituency - women, white voters, adults without college degrees and Hispanices - has fallen below 50 percent in the latest Gallup tracking.

"Bottom line,'' Gallup's Saad reports, "After nearly 20 grueling weeks on the campaign trail since he shook up the Democratic primary race by winning the Iowa caucuses, Obama has finally stretched his lead over his chief rival into the teens. Having previously captured nearly the maximum level of support from black voters, Obama's latest gains have come from a broad spectrum of rank-and-file Democrats.

"At least for now, he has expanded his position as the preferred candidate of men, young adults, and highly educated Democrats, and has erased Clinton's advantages with most of her prior core constituency groups, including women, the less well-educated, and whites,'' she notes of the survey of 1,261 Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters interviewed May 16-18. The results carry a possible 3 percentage point margin of error.

For more, see the Gallup report.