Reply #89: Here are some scenarios excluding Florida [View All]

[lsusteel]

Before I do that, though, keep in mind Obama has a solid lead in both IA and CO. In NM, the last two polls have been +9 and tied. In NV, which hasn't been polled since April, Obama trails by 0.3% in the average of polls. And NM only went to Bush by 1%, CO by 5%, and NV by 2%.

Here a few plausible scenarios that don't involve winning Florida and assuming he keeps his solid lead in Iowa (all based on Kerry's map minus New Hampshire):

1. Win Ohio

2. Win CO, and NM or NV

3. Win MO (Obama only trails by 2 in the latest poll), and one of CO, NM, NV

I think #2 is the most likely and most plausible.