Reply #2: Actually, I posted a theory earlier yesterday.. [View All]

[tedoll78]

Lemme bounce it off of you..

It looks like the campaigns are focusing primarily on any state BUT Florida. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada.. and especially Ohio. It's a striking contrast to 2000, when the media and the campaigns were all going on and on about how important Florida would be.

Now, we barely hear a peep about Florida, save for when a hurricane hits it.

Kerry's ahead there by an average of 6% in this month's polls. Pretty good, and he knows it. We're fired-up - he knows this. Undecideds go between 3-2 and 2-1 for the challenger; he also knows this.

So, my theory: Kerry, knowing all of this, seems to be trying a back-door strategy with Florida. Edwards has been there quite a bit, working the local media scenes. Advertising there has been moderate in volume. But we don't hear Kerry bragging about how he's going to win Florida. Could he be doing this to keep the focus on Florida below what it could be, so that the Bush camp won't act more stridently to hold onto its electoral votes?

Sure, the GOP convention will provide a minor bump, but Kerry will likely remain tied with Bush afterward in Florida. And considering the party energies and the undecideds, things still look good there. I wonder if he knows things are going well there, and he's just trying not to rock the boat..