Reply #4: how it is explained on chrisbell.com [View All]

[muse]

if you can wade through the similes:


The first post-primary Zogby-WSJ poll has a lot of good news for Team Bell, so let's get right to it. Confirming what we saw in the Dallas Morning News poll in February, Bell has clearly climbed past a stagnant Strayhorn campaign and claimed second place for his own. The numbers are below, with the change since the January poll in parentheses:

Perry: 36.3% (-2)
Bell: 20.7% (+2.8)
Strayhorn: 19% (-1.5)
Kinky: 16.7% (+2.3)

Let's break this down like a circus tent:

First, Chris has closed the gap with Rick Perry by 5 points since January as Perry slides into the mid-30s. I'm sticking with my line on his Perry. His poll numbers are like a weather forecast for a Dallas winter. In a plurality, Rick Perry's 36.3% stands out there in the middle of the road like future roadkill.

Second, Chris shows a gain relative to Foghorn Strayhorn, with a 4.3% swing away from her and towards Chris as he begins to consolidate Democrats. To bleed 1.5% with high name ID, millions of dollars spent in statewide advertising, and huge press coverage during her petition drive doesn't tell a happy story. To do so when the other major Republican in the race was also bleeding support doesn't indicate that she has effectively positioned herself as the most credible alternative. A lot of hot air is keeping her ballon inflated, but just barely. Say it with me, everyone: She is an Austin insider mirage. And this poll shows the haze might be starting to lift.

Third, Chris is the only candidate with a credible win scenario who shows momentum in this poll. All we have to do is to get one more vote than Rick Perry, and with his clear primary win, this poll shows that he has started climbing that mountain.