Reply #3: Not easy to say [View All]

[muriel_volestrangler]

because it would, of course, depend on the other seats not listed here. If they too had a swing to the Lib Dems etc. anywhere near enough for Labour to lose these seats, then the Lib Dems would probably be in power with an absolute majority - eg Harriet Harman got 69% to the Lib Dems' 13% in the last election. These aren't target seats that the non-Labour parties have a reasonable chance of winning (though some are, eg Ochil and Perthshire South, 2001: Lab 33.7 Con 21.8 SNP 31.3) - they're seats where a protest vote won't let a Tory in, while it hopefully will be noticed - perhaps by putting the other party into a strong second place. Not only does that chide New Labour, it also makes the Conservatives look unpopular.

Looking at your own MP, Denis Murphy, it looks as though his voting on the Iraq war (voting with the Lib Dem/rebel Labour etc. on amendments, and then abstaining on the final vote) has been enough to keep him off this list - the poll numbers would allow him on. So I think we really can say these people are hardcore New Labour.