Reply #42: Papau, please clarify this. [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

YOU SAY:
"1.75 MILLION BUSH 2000 VOTERS DIED" - the 50 million Bush voters, using 1994 GAR Proj. 2002 mortality, would if average age 50 have a .99122 chance of living 4 years, meaning about 500,000 Bush voters in 2000 would have died by 2004. It does not change your logic - but I'd revise the statement to "450,000 to 500,000 Bush voters were expected to die". No need to go beyond the data you have - which I agree implies that the race was won by Kerry - and that the exit poll adjustments are out of the range of reasonableness".

Why do you quote a mortality stat for an average age of 50+?
Why not apply the 8.5 per 1000 annual death rate across the board (3.5% over a four year period)?

What about voters who died from 20 on up?
There were 105 million voters in 2000.
Why would the annual death rate not apply here?

I'm not an actuary, by the way.