Reply #7: CUTTING TO THE CORE OF THE ANALYSIS... [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

It comes down to these simple facts:

1. The Final exit poll assumes an impossibility in the 43%/37% how voted in 2000 weighting.

2. Even if all Bush 2000 voters were still alive and returned to vote, his maximum 2000 voter share is only 41%, as stated in the preliminary 13047 exit poll.

3. But approximately 3.5% died, so his maximum is 39.8%.

4. We know that at least 17% were new voters, because we have calculated the change in total voter turnout from 2000 to 2004.

5. We know that 3% voted for Nader/Other.

6. Therefore, if the Bush share is 40%, we can calculate the Gore turnout: 40% = 100-40 -17 -3.

7. Using the Final Election Poll (13660) stats and the 40/40 split, Kerry is an easy winner by 3.5 million votes.

8. Using the Final Election Poll (13047) stats and the 40/40 split, Kerry is a landslide winner by 7 million votes.