Reply #12: What is the probability that.... [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

Kerry would win 51.30%-47.77% in Florida counties(3.864 mm
votes) which used touch screen computers, but lose by
42.27%-57.03% in counties where Optical scanners (3.429mm
votes) were used?

In other words, what is the probability that Kerry's
TouchScreen vote would exceed his 47.06% total vote
(TouchScreen + Optical Scanner) by 4.24%?

Note: 
In TouchScreen counties, Dem registration is 40.89% vs. 36.77%
Repub.
In OptiScan counties, Dem registration is 41.92% vs. 38.98%
Repub.

Reg   = registered voters (in millions)
DemR  = registered Democrats
RepR  = registered Republicans
DiffR = Demr - RepR

Votes = Total votes
DemV  = Kerry votes
RepV  = Bush votes

Reg	DemR	RepR	DiffR	Votes	DemV	RepV
Touchscreen	
5.576	40.89%	36.77%	4.12%	3.864	51.30%	47.77%

Optiscan
4.725	41.92%	38.98%	2.94%	3.420	42.27%	57.03%

Total	
10.301	41.37%	37.79%	3.58%	7.284	47.06%	52.12%
							
Assume a 1.0% Margin of error (this is being extremely
conservative):

Prob	= NORMDIST(0.513,0.4706,0.01/1.96,FALSE)

Prob	 = 7.877E-14, less than 1 in 12.7 Trillion.