Reply #10: No, It's Not Proof [View All]

[On the Road]

because they're not measuring raw votes. They're taking raw numbers and weighting them to reflect the people who turned up at the polls. (If I'm mistaken, please let me know. It's not very clear, but that's how I read it.)

The original numbers were probably weighted based on the 2000 election. Maybe there were some other changes for population growth, etc.

But if turnout was markedly different -- say, twice as many people showed up at polling places in Republican counties -- the weightings were no good. They would have to be changed, and some groups would inevitably "lose" votes in the process.

Now, I'm not saying the election was free and fair. It is very suspicious that the exit polls were so far off. But it's important to make an accusation with the most convincing argument. The article on the Zogby site is more persuasive because the author can vouch for the historical record of exit polls and demonstrate that this election is an anomaly. That's all that can be done. The rest requires an investigation of the votes.