Reply #104: Well there is, a little [View All]

[Febble]

Vote fraud would cause a redshift between poll and count, right?

And also would increase the swing to Bush in precincts where fraud occurred right?

So if redshift arose from fraud, then redshift and swing should be significantly and positively correlated. And yet it was not - there was no correlation at all.

So it looks as though in Ohio, if there was fraud, it was not vote-switching fraud. And yet the Within Precinct Error was high - so in Ohio at least, there is evidence that the redshift was not due to vote-switching.

Ditto in NH where the precincts with the largest swing were recounted, and the recount supported the count rather than the poll. So again, in NH, it looks as though the redshift and swing were not related.

So there's a bit of evidence. If the main evidence for vote-switching is from the massive redshift, and in two key redshifted states the redshift doesn't seem to be due to vote-switching, then I do tend to call that evidence against massive vote-switching. It's certainly not more circumstantial than many bits of evidence I've seen FOR vote-switching.