Reply #11: Getting from 12:22 to 1:25 with 613 polled needs a multiplier of 131%. [View All]

[Festivito]

Which could happen, perhaps, if all day, blacks and hispanics were polled in disproportionally high percentages to the surrounding population, and when the last 613 were polled, or found, those 613 had to represent a large portion of, say, whites, again, needing to multiplied by 131% to adjust to represent the surrounding white population.

131% is the minimum multiplier needed assuming that EVERY response was for Bush. Certainly, the responses should have been mixed and the multiplier would have to be higher.

Could overly zealous pollsters have picked minorities all morning and realizing this later in the day suddenly started picking only whites in order to balance their sources, only to find they still needed a huge multiplier? All we seem to know is that it had to be white men and white women in the same proportions they had collected all day.

Regardless, it doesn't smell good.