Reply #11: BushCo won 57-42% of the vote in FL optiscan counties with 42% Dem- 39% GOP registration [View All]

[glengarry]

The optiscan ballots are tabulated by central tabulators where the software can easily be programmed to miscount the votes.

So what is the percentage of the ballots that need to be audited?


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#Florida

They ignored Florida’s implausible vote count by machine type and party registration. In 2000, Bush supposedly “won” by 547 official votes. Given Gore’s 70% share of 180,000 uncounted under/over votes, he would have won by at least 60,000 votes had they been counted. In 2004, Bush supposedly “won” by 52-47%, a 368,000 vote margin. But the Democrats had a 41- 37% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and a 42-39% edge in Optical Scan (OS) counties. Kerry won the TS counties (3.86mm votes) by 51-47%, but Bush won the OS counties (3.43mm votes) by a whopping 57-42%. Kerry’s low vote shares in the three most heavily populated (and Democratic) TS counties (Palm Beach, Broward, Dade) are highly suspect. Florida voter registration by party is the same in TS and OS counties, so we aren’t comparing apples and oranges. The TS county vote share matched the 12:22am NEP to within 0.43% for Bush and 0.31% for Kerry. The OS county share deviated by 9.0% for Bush (307,000 votes) while the Kerry discrepancy was -8.1% (278,000).



Two separate models indicated that Kerry won Florida by 221,000 votes. The first was based on voting machine type (optical scanners and touch screens) and used 2004 NEP “How Voted in 2000” vote shares with party registration percentage weights. Kerry won by … 221,000 votes. The second was based on uncounted and switched votes assumptions applied to the 2004 recorded vote. Kerry won by…. 221,000 votes. Assuming that Kerry won 70,000 of 96,000 Nader 2000 votes (based on his 71% NEP share), he had a built-in 100,000 vote advantage on Election Day … assuming all the votes would be counted. The final Zogby pre-election poll had Kerry winning by 50-47%. Assuming a 1.0% margin of error, the probability is 1 in 12.7 trillion that Kerry's total TS county vote share would exceed his total Florida share by 4.2%.