Reply #12: Correction: Should be Party ID vote shares, not Voted 2000 [View All]

[glengarry]

Two separate models indicated that Kerry won Florida by 221,000 votes. The first was based on voting machine type (optical scanners and touch screens) and used 2004 NEP “Party ID” vote shares with party registration percentage weights...


The following analysis is based on 12:22 am NEP Party ID vote shares and total Touchscreen(TS) and Optical Scan (OS) county registration.

Kerry won by 221,000 votes: 141,000 in TS and 80,000 in OS counties.

Party Registration Share... Recorded Vote Share Votes (millions)
Cty Total Democrat Repub Diff.......... Total Kerry Bush Kerry Bush
TS 5.576 40.89% 36.77% 4.12%... 3.864 51.30% 47.77% 1.982 1.846
OS 4.725 41.92% 38.98% 2.94%... 3.420 42.27% 57.03% 1.446 1.950
Total 10.301 41.37% 37.79% 3.58%... 7.284 47.06% 52.12% 3.428 3.796


Calculated Florida Vote Shares

Assumptions:
12:22am NEP PARTY ID vote shares
Party ID FL Registration weights

Result:
Kerry Winning margin: 221,000 votes
141,000 (TS) + 80,000 (OS)

Touch screen counties ... Optical Scanner counties
PartyID Mix Bush Kerry Nader... Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 40.89% 9% 90% 1%... 41.92% 9% 90% 1%
Rep 36.77% 92% 7% 1%... 38.98% 92% 7% 1%
Ind 22.33% 44% 52% 4%... 19.10% 44% 52% 4%

Pct 100% 47.34% 50.99% 1.67%... 100% 48.04% 50.39% 1.57%
Vote 3.864 1.829 1.970 0.065... 3.420 1.643 1.723 0.054

Actual Recorded Vote
Pct 100% 47.77% 51.30% 0.92%... 100% 57.03% 42.27% 0.70%
Vote 3.864 1.846 1.982 0.036... 3.420 1.950 1.446 2.40%