Reply #68: to the contrary [View All]

[foo_bar]

MOE defines 'percent variation' in +/- terms.

Since you don't know what "margin of error" means (it has nothing to do with "variation", but rather describes an estimate of random sampling error at a given confidence level) you might leave "education" to someone with a passing familiarity of the subject.

The margin of error is usually defined as the radius of a confidence interval for a particular statistic from a survey. One example is the percent of people who prefer product A versus product B. When a single, global margin of error is reported for a survey, it refers to the maximum margin of error for all reported percentages using the full sample from the survey. If the statistic is a percentage, this maximum margin of error can be calculated as the radius of the confidence interval for a reported percentage of 50%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

The margin of error is an estimate of a confidence interval for a given measurement, result, etc. and is frequently cited in statistics.

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/MarginofError.html

That would mean, unless I'm wrong, that a 6% WPE = 3%MOE.

You're wrong, but WPE is a lot like what you think MOE means:

"Within Precinct Error (WPE)
Within Precinct Error (WPE) is an average of the difference between the percentage
margin between the leading candidates in the exit poll and the actual vote for all sample
precincts in a state. The signed WPE gives the direction of this error; in this report a
negative WPE represents a Democratic overstatement in the exit poll and a positive WPE
represents a Republican overstatement in the exit poll. The absolute WPE represents the
total error."

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/01/media_whore_ale.html

So, the crux question is; "Are you saying that DRE machines were not used to commit fraud in the 2004 elections?"

The burden of proof is always on the person asserting something. Shifting the burden of proof, a special case of Argumentum ad Ignorantiam, is the fallacy of putting the burden of proof on the person who denies or questions the assertion. The source of the fallacy is the assumption that something is true unless proven otherwise.
<...>
"OK, so if you don't think the grey aliens have gained control of the US government, can you prove it?"

http://www.infidels.org/library/modern/mathew/logic.html#shifting