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Reply #66: Thanks, I'm glad that the rules of mathematics work in Canada... [View All]

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Petrodollar Warfare Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #63
66. Thanks, I'm glad that the rules of mathematics work in Canada...
Edited on Mon Nov-15-04 04:58 PM by Petrodollar Warfare
...even though they no longer work here in our "faith-based" election.

BTW, despite another poster's remarks, I have confimed the NEP did weigh "voter turnout" in the 4pm and 6pm exit polling data(the final two "real" exit polls). This is common practice as the pollsters have 8-10 hours of voter turn-out data at the end of Election day, and it was done to the final data sets on Nov 2nd, just as it has been done historically for three decades in an effort to help networks "call" a state. Obviosuly this was not done, but my question is who authorized the 1AM "adjustments."

To recap, the 1:01 and 1:41 AM "adjustments" were an attempt to match the machine count/vote tabulation against the legitimate exit poll data that had been weighted for turn-out - but - they had to break the laws of mathematics to show Bush ahead in OH and FL.

Dr. Steven Freeman's analysis shows - the exit polling data was correct within a 99% confidence level, but the odds of Kerry lossing OH, FL and winning PA by the Network's "final/adjusted" numbers is 250 million to 1. If you add in the bizarre data from NH, NC and NM, the odds are hundreds of billions to 1. In otherwords, in order to believe that Bush won, you have to beleive the impossible. Welcome to Orwell's world where up to down, right is wrong, and the laws of mathematics have been rendered "quaint."

####

http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/111404A.shtml

Editor's Note | How could the exit polls in this year's presidential election have diverged so drastically from the results that election officials and the media announced?

Professor Steven Freeman, a statistician at the University of Pennsylvania, offers a disturbing answer. Looking at the exit polls and announced results in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, he concludes that the odds against such an accidental discrepancy in all three states together was 250 million to one.

"As much as we can say in social science that something is impossible, it is impossible that the discrepancies between predicted and actual vote counts in the three critical battleground states of the 2004 election could have been due to chance or random error."

Read Dr. Freeman's well-reasoned, well-written argument, and make up your own mind. -- sw

The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy
By Steven F. Freeman
t r u t h o u t | Report
http://truthout.org/unexplainedexitpoll.pdf

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