Reply #121: Yes, I do find many of my findings suspect ... [View All]

[Iceburg]

but #1 .. I do not live in the area and have no knowledge of
Ohio election practices, boundary changes, precinct-specific
behaviours etc, and local politics.  

That said, I am a Canadian who has spent more than 20 years
working in the election planning and delivery business here in
Canada and abroad. 

There are many legitimate reasons why these numbers could defy
logic:

1) The number of registered voters is wrong
   # 1 Possible Reason:
      - very poor registration management (ineligible or 
      inactive voters not being purged from the roll)

2) The estimate of eligible voters is wrong. Estimating 
   population growth is not an exact science and is 
   prone to errors in methodology, mathematics and 
   typos and REALITY.
  
   Take Nobe County, Ohio for example. According to the 
   US Census, Noble was growing at a very rapid pace. 
   In a 10 year period it increased its population by 
   24% then suddenly in the 38 month period between 
   April 1, 2000 and July 1,2003 it seemingly 
   decreased its population by 4 persons (recorded 
   as Z on the Census site). Now that didn't make sense 
   to me until I spied the % Female population for 2000 
   --- its only 43.3% !!!!!!!! ...

   I follow the bread crumbs wherever they take me and this 
   one led me to ...

	15708 State Route 78 West
	Caldwell, Ohio 43724
	Noble Correctional Institution
		Security Level: 2
		Total Acreage: 164
		Date Opened: 1996
		Population as of 8/04: 2168


  Time Series of Ohio Intercensal Population Estimates 
  by County: April 1, 1990 to April 1, 2000
 
http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/2000s/vintage_2001/CO-EST2001-12/CO-EST2001-12-39.html

   
  http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39/39121.html
  People QuickFacts                                    
                               Noble County    Ohio 
  Population, 2003 estimate       14,054    11,435,798 
  Population, percent change, 
    April 1, 2000 to July 1,2003     Z         0.7% 
  Population, 2000                14,058    11,353,140 
  Population, percent change, 
    1990 to 2000                   24.0%       4.7% 
  Persons under 5 years old, 
    percent, 2000                  5.0%        6.6% 
  Persons under 18 years old, 
    percent, 2000                  22.6%       25.4% 
  Persons 65 years old and 
    over, percent, 2000            13.1%       13.3% 
  Female persons, percent,2000     43.3%       51.4% 

Having said that I will continue my search at the poll-level
because that's where my experience and instincts lead me.
Nevertheless, it is an equally important exercise to look at
all other levels of granularity -- higher levels: precincts,
counties and lower levels: machine level.