Reply #33: Here's the thing, though: [View All]

[nickgutierrez]

Zito's decline to mediocrity was completely predictable. Here are his K/9 rates in the six seasons before the Giants signed him:

2001: 8.61, 3.49 ERA
2002: 7.14, 2.75 ERA
2003: 5.67, 3.30 ERA
2004: 6.89, 4.48 ERA
2005: 6.74, 3.86 ERA
2006: 6.15, 3.83 ERA

ESPN.com doesn't have any stats on batting average on balls in play (BABIP), but I'd bet cold hard cash that he was extremely "lucky", for lack of a better word, in that department in 2003, and that it swung way back the other way in 2004. It's not a perfect correlation, but it tracks pretty well, and it does show a pretty steep decline.