Reply #6: I have sporatically followed Blue Mass [View All]

[karynnj]

(more than Blue Jersey which is pathetic on my part). I have not really seen Warren mentioned - all though I bet the BG op-ed might have been posted.

Here are three Blue MA comments in a thread this week:

Tim Murray
is IMHO the strongest candidate to take on Brown in 2012, unless Rachel Maddow or someone like that parachutes in. If Deval and Tim win in 2010, look for Murray to set up an exploratory committee in reasonably short order.

As for the other Senators, I don't think Kirk is going to win. The scandal over his "misstatements" about his military record has been hugely embarrassing, and although the Dem isn't the greatest candidate either, I think he'll pull it out. A Crist win would be fascinating, but also far from a sure thing.

Finally -- 20-30% of registered Republicans in MA? Where'd you get those numbers? The most recent party registration numbers I could find (2008) show the GOP at 12%, Dems at 37%, and Unenrolled at 51%. The state GOP would be absolutely drooling to hit your 20-30% number, but it's not happening any time soon.
by: David


I mean I think you are right to give him credit for being incredibly politically smart and you are not underestimating him like others on this site, but essentially I am deftly afraid that Brown could eek out a win. He already has a huge financial advantage that will likely only continue to grow and I can't think of a single Congressmen (past or present) who we could put up against him and win. Brown appeals to Perot voters, socially moderate (or frankly non-interested), fiscally conservative, and hawkish on defense and immigration. That's the Perot mantra in a nutshell. To counter that we need a Democrat who gets progressives excited, can talk with, not down to, working class voters, and has some cash and statewide name recognition. Murray seems like the obvious choice (presuming Deval wins, if he loses Murray will run for Gov in 14'). He can be competitive out West and in Worchester County where Brown crushed Coakley, competitive in the North and South Shore, and I see him bringing over blue collar white males who deserted the party for Brown. He is also a bona fide progressive on all the issues we care about from health care to gay rights. He is the only one who can bring in Coakely, Khazei, and Capuano voters together in the primary while also reaching out to independents. Markey, Meehan, McGovern, Tierney, and Cappy are all too tainted by being in Washington too long and being non-entities outside their districts. A dark horse like Jamie Eldridge, Councilor Ross, Flaherty, Tolman, could possibly fit the bill as well. But I see Murray as holding the edge.
by: jconway @ Wed Jul 14, 2010 at 15:38:15 PM EDT




Murray
He is also incredibly witty and great on the stump. I loved Capuano, but he was way too angry, nuanced, and frazzled on the stump. People don't want an attack dog for Senator. As a Pelosi lieutenant his best bet is to wait for her retirement and possibly become Speaker, or run for Governor if Deval loses. Other than that this guy won't make it to the Senate, sad to say.

http://www.bluemassgroup.com/diary/20269/back-to-triple-a-scottie

(I disgree that Brown is incredibly smart politically - or any other way. His Face the Nation appearance showed that he was completely unprepared to speak intelligently or even correctly site the talking points. His idiotic comments on earmarks in the BG interview actually undercut his one real trump card - he can get special deals because he is a swing vote. Kerry likely gets more real funding for the state by quietly adding MA programs into Commerce - especially in the area of communications and technology which are important to MA and which his sub committee oversees) and small business committee bills. But, a new Democrat would not have Kerry's power or Brown's position as a swing vote.

One potential Brown liability with Independents is if he flirts with Republicans enough to make them think he intends to run for higher office. Given that entering his FIFTH term, some questioned Kerry's commitment to Massachusetts, I would guess that this could be an issue for Brown as well. The fact that Kerry will be 70 in 2014 when he will likely run for re-election and even in 2012, there might be fear he could leave for SoS, this might be a big negative for Brown as MA may see a future where they might have two extremely low seniority Senators for a very long stretch.

I don't see Rachel Maddow as a serious possibility - but I likely would have said the same with Franken.